Hamas

The conflict between Israel and Hamas has brought to light a significant cognitive dissonance stemming from Beijing’s perceptions and strategies about the Middle East. China has endeavored to present itself as an impartial entity in the issue, seemingly aiming to establish its role as a mediator. Nevertheless, the Chinese government has chosen not to denounce the October 7 assault on Israel by Hamas or acknowledge Iran’s involvement in orchestrating these acts of aggression. In contrast, Chinese authorities, media organizations under state control, and social media platforms attribute responsibility for the conflict on Israel and the United States. It is evident that China has consistently expressed support for the Palestinian cause during the Cold War era, employing a customary approach of condemning Israel in order to cultivate positive relationships with Arab and Muslim nations. This can be observed by China’s voting patterns in the United Nations. Similarly, taking advantage of the opportunity to depict the United States as a destabilizing entity and promoting the idea that there exists a feasible alternative to America’s liberal international system is a well-known strategy. Nevertheless, the fundamental principles that guide China’s approach appear to be increasingly incongruent with the evolving dynamics of the Middle East.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, as examples, have subsequently issued official statements denouncing Hamas, a stance that contradicts Beijing’s reasoning. Chinese officials consistently reiterate their longstanding claim that the Israel-Palestinian problem holds paramount importance in the Middle East. However, it appears that their Sunni counterparts no longer espouse this viewpoint. In contemporary times, a considerable number of Arab states have come to hold the belief, in conjunction with Israel, that Iran, as China’s comprehensive strategic partner, represents the primary source of destabilization within the region.

The diplomatic ties between China and the nations of Iran and Saudi Arabia

            The shared impression of threat arises from Iran’s propagation of an intolerant form of radical Islam, its development of nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, and its assertive utilization of proxy factions with the aim of inciting regional instability, toppling Sunni governments, and annihilating Israel. Senior members of Hamas, in conjunction with Iranian authorities, have provided confirmation that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its affiliated groups provided assistance to Hamas in carrying out this offensive. Qatar serves as an additional significant financial source for Hamas. Hezbollah, an Islamist-militant group associated with Iran, characterized the attack as “a communication directed towards those who are pursuing the process of normalization with Israel.”

The significance of the ideological danger presented to moderate-Sunni regimes by Iran and its proxies should not be underestimated. Over the course of a minimum of ten years, many nations ranging from Morocco to the United Arab Emirates have endeavored to advance a more liberal interpretation of Islam as a viable alternative to the extremist ideology propagated by influential figures such as the Ayatollah of Tehran. The aspirations to establish a more stable and pluralistic Middle East have been expressed in the Marrakesh Declaration of 2016 and the Charter of Makkah of 2019. Similar to Iran, China is likely speculating that if the crisis escalates, the increasing backing of the Palestinians by Sunni populations around the region will eventually prompt their leaders to publicly condemn Israel. Furthermore, if the ongoing conflict were to disrupt the progress made by the U.S.-led Abraham Accords, which have facilitated the normalization of relations between the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan with Israel, it would undermine America’s containment strategy and provide an opportunity for China to advance its alternative approach to regional security, as outlined in its conceptual document titled “Global Security Initiative” released in February 2023.

It is conceivable that Tehran’s proposal may have unintended negative consequences. In light of the aforementioned circumstances, it can be argued that the assault orchestrated by Hamas, with support from Iran, directly undermines the fundamental security interests of numerous Sunni states. Consequently, this situation is expected to bolster Israel’s attractiveness as a viable security ally in the foreseeable future. Recently, Ali Rashid Al Nuaimi, the head of the Defense, Interior, and Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federal National Council of the United Arab Emirates, expressed his agreement with this concept. As per the statement made by the chairman, it is asserted that the Accords hold significant importance for our future. The aforementioned statement highlights that the platform in question is not merely a bilateral agreement between two governments, but rather a comprehensive initiative aimed at catalyzing transformative changes in the region. Its overarching objective is to foster an environment characterized by enhanced security, stability, and prosperity for all stakeholders involved. China may perceive strategic benefits in exerting influence over a politically volatile entity such as Iran. In the event that circumstances need, Beijing has the potential to utilize its association with Tehran as a strategic tool in wider geopolitical discussions with other influential entities. China’s current lack of confidence among regional entities and limited regional hard power hinder its significant involvement in the mediation process. Nevertheless, the diplomatic ties between Beijing and the Islamic Republic are expected to secure China’s participation in the negotiation process. Beijing would not extend its influence on Tehran without expecting something in return.

Saudi Arabia is evidently discontented. The Kingdom had anticipated a period of tranquility following its diplomatic agreement with Iran, facilitated by China. The Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), expressed a desire to prioritize the digital and economic development of the nation, advocate for a more moderate interpretation of Islam, and gradually move towards establishing normalized relations with Israel. The Saudi population has the belief that their participation in the accords will result in the marginalization of Hamas, thereby exerting pressure on the Palestinians to renounce terrorism and embrace a peaceful resolution. MBS is observing with a sense of unease, primarily concerned about the situation in Yemen and the involvement of the Houthis, who are widely regarded as an Iranian proxy. The individual would likely have taken notice of the presence of two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups, perceiving them as a representation of the significance associated with being under the protection of the U.S. security framework. This may not necessarily be advantageous for China in the long run.

Has the opportunity been wasted?

It is evident that, despite Beijing’s extensive range of interests in the Middle East, encompassing oil, economic, technology, and security domains, it is highly unlikely that China’s Fujian carrier will be deployed in the region in the near future. The escalation of tensions between China and Western nations has resulted in an increased level of China’s involvement in the region. This is evident through its efforts to grow the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China’s emerging regional military presence leaves it vulnerable, as it depends on the regional hard power projection capabilities of its strategic competitor to safeguard its interests. However, Beijing missed a significant chance to establish mutual understanding with its adversaries, including the United States (and the Western world in general), India, and Japan, by neglecting to condemn Hamas. Beijing acknowledges that its stance is likely to find support among several countries in the Global South, such as South Africa, Malaysia, and others, particularly when presented with anti-colonial rhetoric.

There have been emerging reports indicating a rise in coordinated dissemination of anti-Israel and anti-U.S./Western propaganda within the Iran-China-Russia alliance. It is probable that this tendency will persist. In order to provide a broader viewpoint, a commentator characterized a recent episode on CCTV as generating the perception that Israel initiated the bombing of Gaza without any apparent justification, including the deliberate targeting of emergency vehicles, thereby reinforcing the notion that such actions are characteristic of Israel. According to Matt Turpin, an individual who held the position of China Director at the U.S. National Security Council during the period of 2018 to 2019, the axis is engaged in the dissemination of content that capitalizes on divisions present within and between democratic nations. This is achieved by amplifying popular criticisms originating from both the left and right ends of the political spectrum within individual countries. Chinese officials, scholars, and state media persistently propagate the notion that the absence of a Palestinian state and the historical injustices endured by the Palestinian people are the fundamental factors contributing to the current predicament. These perspectives are considered to be crucial to comprehending the broader Middle East issue. Chinese scholars, politicians, and observers frequently neglect to acknowledge the fact that Hamas has officially articulated its intention to establish an Islamic State of Palestine including the entire region “from the river to the sea,” so implying the absence of Israel. Nonetheless, the utilization of reductionism becomes advantageous in instances where it aligns with Beijing’s inclination to attribute all of the region’s difficulties to Israel and the United States. Furthermore, it is highly probable that this action is deliberate. Presenting a concise and easily understandable method to address a multifaceted problem proves to be a highly impactful and efficient means of communication, particularly in the context of a meme. Chinese scholars have demonstrated a tendency to utilize historical events in shaping their narratives. However, it is noteworthy that they frequently omit the fact that Israel has extended multiple offers to the Palestinians for the establishment of a state. Regrettably, the Palestinians have consistently declined these proposals.

China’s stance disregards the internal dynamics within the Palestinian community that hinder advancements in this area. In 2006, Hamas was democratically elected to govern the Gaza Strip. Subsequently, in the following year, Hamas forcefully displaced the Palestine Authority, which continues to govern the West Bank. Consequently, these two entities have since maintained a contentious and adversarial relationship. Corruption pervades the ranks of both political parties, and the absence of an independent Palestine results in a continuous influx of substantial foreign money, which is utilized to sustain their respective military capabilities, construct complex tunnel networks, and amass personal wealth, while ordinary Palestinian citizens endure hardship. With whom does Beijing propose that Israel engage in negotiations?

The irony lies in the fact that Hamas and Iran, along with their proxies, espouse and endorse an extremist form of intolerant Islam that China perceives as a significant threat. This has led Beijing to adopt domestic measures that have attracted strong condemnation from the global community. The transnational nature of radical Islamist ideology is exemplified by the incident in which an Israeli individual was subjected to a stabbing attack in the public spaces of Beijing. Forging closer ties with Tehran is unlikely to effectively protect China or its interests in the Middle East against the threats of separatism, extremism, and terrorism, which are being stoked by the Ayatollah and his followers. In fact, it may have the opposite effect. Chinese intellectuals and policymakers are not unaware of these realities. Nevertheless, the leadership of China appears to have the perspective that admitting these matters does not significantly contribute to the advancement of Beijing’s goals. China has undoubtedly made adequate preparations to assume the role of the rotating presidency at the United Nations Security Council for the current month. The text is expected to portray China’s “Global Security Initiative” as a potential catalyst for peace, prosperity, and a resolution to the security issues faced by the Middle East. As a demonstration of amity, unity, and endorsement for Israel, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and U.S. President Joe Biden recently undertook a visit to Tel Aviv. In the context of China’s foreign policy in the Middle East, it asserts amicable relations with all nations in the region, a claim that raises questions regarding its feasibility.