The US and China on Taiwan Strait: War on Process?

China is the US foreign policy priority now. As China’s power rises, the US attempts to defend and gain US leadership and global governance. It has escalated political tension between these two giant powers, which one of the growing issues is Taiwan. Not only has China blocked Taiwan’s membership in the United Nations, but it also sent military threats such as dozens of warplanes to the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Blinken, US Secretary of State, warns that China has increasingly prepared its military capability to attack Taiwan, and it would have ‘terrible consequences.” It may lead to a disastrous impact and result in enormous losses. In addition, President Joe Biden affirms the US would protect Taiwan if China attacked using force. Will China and the US be at war over Taiwan? How far will the US and its allies defend Taiwan?

The decision to go to war in Taiwan Straits

Calculations and rationality factors apply to US-China relations on Taiwan Straits. China indeed has significant influence over Taiwan, and it has shown it clearly by sending an offensive threat to Taiwan. The US reaffirmed that America would back Taiwan to raise its military capability. The US would even support Taiwan using military force if the Chinese decided to invade Taiwan. Both China and the US have met and discussed the Taiwan issue, but the tension is high, and the Chinese stressed that the US is ‘playing with fire’ over the Taiwan issue.

War is a product of rational and/or irrational decisions. War is also related to miscalculation and misperception, in which misperception occurs when incorrect data is received or distorted by policymakers. Then, the misperception might lead to miscalculation if the policymakers are at a loss or gain unintended results. Looking back at the late US military intervention, there are more losses than gains. Just like the US decision to invade Iraq or Afghanistan. The cost, time, and blood are massive and uncountable. Not to mention the aftereffect to civilian stability in the national and regional.

James Fearon in Abdul Hasan (2020) argues in the ‘Rationalist Explanation of War’ that there are three mechanisms that lead policymakers to choose war. War is caused by the unknown of others’  capability and intention. Two, a war caused by failure of reaching an agreement that satisfies parties, and the third is failure to reach a deal because of different inherent nature. Most wars only brought more losses than gains and were considered irrational decisions. On the other hand, war can also be rational if the States plan to defend themselves against other armed threats.

Noting the Taiwan issues, dialogue between US and China has been conducted several times. However, China and US have not met any official agreement for the current issue. China considered Taiwan its territorial integrity, and the US considered Taiwan to enhance and protect democratic values and economic and political interests. The US sticks with the Taiwan Relations Act, the Three Joint Communiques, and the ‘six assurances. These rules bridge the US involvement in non-diplomatic relations with Taiwan to help maintain peace and stability.

Both the US and China are rational if no war is happening regarding Taiwan Straits. Especially in the time of pandemic Covid-19, the decision to go to war is improbable. Furthermore, both countries could predict the outcomes of war. Though the Chinese have raised their military capability near the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), it is a mere threat and part to show off their military power to Taiwan and the US.

How will the US defend Taiwan?

According to Global Fire Power, China is ranked 3 of 140 out of the countries considered for the annual GFP review, while Taiwan is in 22 of 140 countries. Then the US, which backs Taiwan, is in the first rank. The difference in military power will deter China’s intention to ‘invade’ Taiwan. It will not be the right choice for China. Nevertheless, the US has also been ambiguous to defend Taiwan. The US gain support from their alliances, Japan, which is also concerned with the Chinese aggressiveness on Taiwan Strait. Both the US and Japan can not ignore the geographic situations in their region, and their involvement is unavoidable. They will try to bridge and reduce the tension in Taiwan Straits for common security and stability.

Geographically, Japan’s policy has shifted after the Chinese sent fighter jets to the islands, which highly threatened Japan’s stability. Japan joined the US to defend Taiwan, but it is questionable and uncertain how far they support Taiwan. The US is now trying to delay and show the Chinese that the US is ready to support Taiwan’s military capability to deter or even attack China. But if the irrational happens, the US might want the war to be short, as they have sent a small number of US troops to Taiwan. The number of US troops in Taiwan has doubled and continued to rise in Biden’s presidency.

According to The special US military forces deployed near Taiwan for providing military ground forces and training for Taiwan’s military capability. With this low military engagement, the US will not go to China. Nevertheless, the US has not yet fully deployed its military support in Taiwan. The US is still training Taiwan’s troops on the military capacity for having the capability to depend on themselves and with the US’ support.