China Should Cooperate with ASEAN on Myanmar Crisis

One issue remains the same in the Southeast Asian region. There is only little hope any effort will significantly change the situation even the change of chairmanship in ASEAN to Cambodia in 2022,. One of the critical issues now is the Myanmar crisis which has been rising again since February 2021. More than a thousand civilians are killed, and the number is usually higher in reality. The tension started when Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s armed forces, took over civil supremacy. Aung San Suu Kyi and other politicians are still under house arrest. Since then, the ASEAN-Myanmar relations have been fragile as the political and security issues escalate, and the military junta refuses to obligate the reconciliation effort in Myanmar.

ASEAN has a central role in stabilizing Myanmar and the Southeast Asian region. The minister of foreign affairs of Cambodia, Prak Sokhonn, has stated Cambodia and ASEAN will put firm pressure on Myanmar. Sadly, the effort will be even more challenging, as Cambodia, the pro-China, and China, as a dominant economic partner in Myanmar, have been carefully trying not to get involved too much with the Myanmar issue. On the other hand, ASEAN has put effort since ASEAN did not invite the military junta to the latest ASEAN Summit. This step is one way to show ASEAN disagreement on the act of coup and the violence in Myanmar. Yet, this is not enough.

The ASEAN Summit produces the Five-Point Consensus, which is the cessation of violence, peaceful dialogue, etc. The Myanmar refusal of these raises concern by many analysts that ASEAN has failed Myanmar, and one of the main issues is the non-interference within the ASEAN. The non-interferences are blamed for blocking the access and effort of ASEAN to protect the fundamental human rights of Myanmar citizens. Under the ASEAN Charter, non-interference is one of the principles restricting ASEAN from getting involved in any domestic political affairs of their sovereign member states.

Noting the rise of civilian victims, the violation of human rights, the use of force, and its effect on social and security stability, ASEAN has to step up to create a firmer mechanism for treating the issue. As Myanmar has close ties with China, both actors could cooperate to reduce the political escalation and social instability in Myanmar.

The Split ASEAN makes it even harder to resolve the Myanmar issue

Managing the conflict will not be an easy problem, particularly for ASEAN, which values the ASEAN Way and respects the principles of non-interference. In the case of Myanmar, what occurred was not necessarily just a national issue but also a regional issue. The current conflict has a spillover effect on refugees and regional instability. Myanmar, particularly the military junta, has violated the ASEAN Charter, such as democracy and human rights values in its country. Internally, ASEAN is not in the same boat on the Myanmar issue, like Thailand, even Cambodia, are in ambiguous politics. At the same time, other countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia openly condemn the military junta coup. Thailand views the military coup in Myanmar as an internal affair that does not need the involvement of ASEAN. On the other hand, Cambodia chose to abstain from the United Nations General Assembly resolution on Myanmar issues. The split ASEAN put more limits on how ASEAN deals with Myanmar efficiently and effectively. 

The effort taken by ASEAN will reflect the ASEAN leadership in the Southeast region, which is also related to ASEAN Centrality. Mely Caballero Anthony (2014) defines ASEAN centrality from the social network approach and argues that ASEAN Centrality is a node in a cluster of networks that allows ASEAN to practice the agreement within ASEAN member states or external parties. The concept of ASEAN as a central position in the Southeast Asia region enables ASEAN to create or set an agenda and create conflict mechanisms that support the community goals. 

In the momentum of a humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, the effective implementation of ASEAN Centrality is crucial. Several approaches can manage intrastate conflicts within the ASEAN, such as economic development and suppression using coercive measures. Economic growth is one of the tools to consolidate the state administration, financial and military resources to enhance security and improve the quality of people’s life. Economic sanction decreases economic growth and aid in-country; thus, it will put more pressure on Myanmar.

Noting the loss and instability in Myanmar, the devastating issue can also be internationalized if there are violations of human rights, the “spillover” effect, and the environment. Thousands of people have fled across the country caused by the coup. In these situations, external and internal actors can pressure ASEAN to respond to the Myanmar issue, as what the ASEAN has done in Malaysia in the late 1980s. The mechanism for dialogue and humanitarian issues can collaborate in the case of Myanmar.

Humanitarian interventions are practicable if the government fails to protect citizens’ security. The effort is worth trying to solve the Myanmar issue, as China can put more economic and political pressure on Myanmar. Please consider; it will not degrade the ASEAN that has long taken pride in its role as a key regional actor. ASEAN Centralities is not just for ASEAN Countries, but also for all foreign partners such as China, especially in times of crisis like Myanmar through the dialogue or summit.

The need for ASEAN-China cooperation

China has a national interest in Myanmar, such as security and economic interest. Geographically, Myanmar is close to China, and the route for Belt and Route Initiatives lies through Myanmar. The disruption of Myanmar’s stability can harm China’s effort to create the BRI, which is not what China wants. In the international cooperation concept, the government or stakeholders create common understanding, standards, and programs that benefit all actors. Both high politics and low politics cooperation tend to offer multiple benefits, though in different proportions. 

Though political will and integration still be a significant burden, in the case of Myanmar, cooperation between ASEAN and China benefits all stakeholders. The partnership produces a win-win solution, as for ASEAN and Myanmar, the issue has a possibility to deescalate and restore regional stability. For China, the influence and dependence of Myanmar and the political reputation will benefit China’s political bargaining in the Southeast Asia region. The stability in Myanmar advantages China’s ongoing BRI project. Noting the dependence of Myanmar on China, ASEAN has met China to “beg” the involvement of China. The need to urge faster progress with China’s help will be a better opportunity for all stakeholders, as Myanmar has a low implementation on the Five-Point consensus.

The Southeast Asia countries have proposed to the United Nations for the Myanmar arms embargo, and sanction to the Myanmar military junta has been taken by Western nations, such as suspending arms sales. The previous sanctions have not resulted in any significant changes for the military junta. In Cambodia’s chairmanship term, the situation in Myanmar will not get any better soon, as along with China, both countries are in a hedging policy. China stated they would support ASEAN in the negotiation and diplomacy with the military junta, but their actions are more contradictory. 

China still grows its investment in Myanmar even after the coup. The military junta, especially in the current Covid-19 crisis, needs financial support, mainly from China. Within China-Myanmar, there is the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) to support the implementation of several infrastructure projects. As long as the economic investment flows to the junta, Myanmar feels they have more power to stay in the current situation. One way to reduce the confidence is by cutting financial help while at the same time providing humanitarian aid to the people who lose their basic rights. The bloodshed in Myanmar has to be resolved, and the ASEAN is leading the diplomatic effort. Not only economic sanctions and arms embargo, but China’s full involvement will also reduce the investment, and mediation with Myanmar can assist the situation.