The US and China are still rivals for influence and engagement in Africa. Somehow, the power competition benefits Ethiopia’s economy and security stability efforts. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, visited Africa a couple of weeks ago. Blinken’s visit comes as a part of a push by President Joe Biden to regain its engagement with Africa, as China has intensified their influence in the region.
Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, has also visited Ethiopia to discuss more engagement on economic development and security issues. Qin disagrees that China and the US are in a competitive relationship. Instead, Qin believes that the two countries should treat each other with respect and foster a more cooperative relationship. This could imply a desire for improved diplomatic relations and a shift from confrontational rhetoric or actions.
The two diplomats had a common goal: to support the enforcement of the peace accord that ended the Tigray conflict that lasted for two years and to enhance diplomatic ties with Ethiopia. How about their approach?
A brutal two-year civil war
Ethiopia has had a war broken out since late 2020 between the government and Tigrayan rebels, fraying US-Ethiopian relations due to alleged crimes against humanity from the US point of view. The conflict broke out in Ethiopia’s northern region of Tigray, and Ethiopian federal police and their allies were against Tigrayan forces. The conflict escalated quickly and also involved Eritrean forces, who were fighting alongside the Ethiopian national forces.
As the conflict progressed, it spread to the neighbouring regions of Amhara and Afar, further intensifying the situation. As expected, the conflict resulted in the loss of numerous lives, displacement of people from their homes, and destruction of property. After two years of intense fighting, in November 2022, the Ethiopian federal government and Tigrayan authorities signed a cessation of hostilities agreement, “The Agreement for Lasting Peace through a Permanent Cessation of Hostilities” (COHA). This agreement aimed to end the conflict and create a peaceful environment for the affected communities, and it is still in the implementation phase.
The AGOA element in the hostilities in Tigray?
The US formally said that war crimes and crimes against humanity had taken place in Ethiopia, yet, the UN Human Rights Council indicated the mandate of the UN International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia might not be renewed due to the rights context. The US need to press on the issues of renewal of the mandate to provide cooperation and assistance to Ethiopia. Nothing this condition, the US linked the war to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). This US trade act provides duty-free treatment to goods of designated sub-Saharan African countries (SSAs), of which Ethiopia is also a member of this country. The US removed Ethiopia from the trade programme due to the alleged human rights violations. The position reflects the US’s hard approach to introducing sanctions on individuals accused of conflict and human rights violations.
Secretary of State Antony Brinken, who met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and representatives of the Tiglayan rebels, stressed the importance of accountability for atrocities committed by all parties to the conflict.
Ethiopia requests the Biden administration to restore its duty-free access to the US market, contending that its suspension was made under “exceptional circumstances” and warrants an immediate re-evaluation.
The US has set certain conditions that Ethiopia must meet to rejoin the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stated that Ethiopia must fulfil specific benchmarks to rejoin the AGOA. These benchmarks include fully implementing the peace agreement signed in November 2020 between the federal government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Blinken has emphasized the importance of the cessation of hostilities agreement and its implementation in moving Ethiopia towards reinstatement into AGOA.
No focus on human rights issues presents a better approach from China
While the US gave sanctions on Ethiopia, China has long supported Ethiopia through its infrastructure projects and investment agreement. Additionally, China views the US sanctions as meddling in Ethiopia’s domestic affairs.
The economic commitment was also reflected at the March 24, 2022, meeting, where Ethiopia and China held an investment and trade cooperation forum to strengthen economic ties between the two countries. The Chinese Embassy in Ethiopia co-organized the forum, the Ethiopian Investment Commission (EIC) and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce Investment Promotion Department in Addis Ababa.
They emphasized that Chinese engagement has injected much-needed momentum into the country’s drive to create a competitive and sustainable industrial development base. He also stated that the newly signed cooperative instrument “will play a unique role by developing the institutional capacity of the EIC in promoting and facilitating Chinese investment inflows to new heights.”
China has expressed its support for Ethiopia in rebuilding the Tigray region, which was heavily affected by conflict in 2020. This commitment clearly indicates China’s dedication to promoting peace and stability in Africa. As a result, it is likely to enhance the bilateral relationship and foster long-term development in the region.
Given its significant economic presence in many Global South countries, China is well-positioned to support these nations. Additionally, China’s governance policies differ from those of the US and Europe, which require them to advocate for values like democracy and human rights. This has made China seem more impartial in some countries, demonstrated by its successful mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, at least in the short term.
However, the expert noted that meditating in the war-torn region of Ethiopia is a much more difficult task due to the complexity of the conflicting groups involved. This highlights the challenges China and the US may face when supporting and mediating conflicts in complicated and deeply entrenched regions.
Ethiopia, with the US, can use the AGOA element for more support, and long and deep relations with China have also benefited the country. Ethiopia must balance the two to pursue political, economic, and security stability.
