The current geopolitical ambiguity created by rivalries between the US and China has put some countries in a dilemma. The member of the Southeast Asia region has also become the ‘target’ of these counties to exercise political, economic, and security interests in the Indo-Pacific.
President Philippines Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the son of an ousted dictator of president Ferdinand Marcos, is now trying to create a balancing act in this tricky situation.
Recently, the US-Philippines agreed to allow the US forces to broaden their footprint in Southeast Asia, particularly in countering China’s military power in the South China Sea. At the same time, Marcos Jr. also maintains China-Philippines relations, especially in boosting investment and economic development agreements.
Continuation of Status Quo
With a ‘friend to all and an enemy to none’ foreign policy approach, the Philippines secure its interest and international relations. Marcos Jr. openly supports the former leader, President Rodrigo Dutertes’s China policy with ‘rapprochement’ foreign policy toward Beijing.
With the same principles, President Marcos Jr. said that the Philippines would stand firm with an independent foreign policy align with the national interest as the primordial guide. The 1987 Philippine Constitution mandates that the country will uphold national sovereignty and territorial integrity towards a policy of freedom from nuclear weapons in its territory.
Unlike Duterte, who is against the US, the current president uses a different approach to preserve the Philippines’ national sovereignty and interests. He stressed, ‘I don’t work for Beijing; I don’t work for Washington DC, I work for the Philippines…to promote [its] national interests’. The Philippines is not choosing a side but is deciding to whom it can elevate the probable achievement of its national interests.
The current leader is more moderately balancing the relationship between the two, especially regarding economic and security issues. Balancing is at the core of the realist approach to the behaviour of states in international relations, where states face ‘unbalance’ and attempt to expand their capabilities (internal balancing) or to ally with other actors (external balancing) to survive in an anarchic system. The Philippines, like other states, also try to balance promptly and infallibly whenever the balance of power shifts to its disadvantage. How does the Philippines balance ‘effectively’?
For their interests, small states were constantly in a difficult situation when they sometimes needed to choose a ‘side.’ At the World Economic Forum, he stressed that while China has been the most critical trading partner, he is not talking about choosing sides. Either way, the US also emphasises to the Philippines that Manila should make its own decision based on its national interest, and the US will and can not intervene.
Flexible foreign policies
Being flexible and adaptable in these uncertain geopolitical realities is needed. ‘There are no permanent friends nor permanent enemies but only permanent interests.’ While Marcos Jr. has stated that he would not surrender or abandon even one square inch of its territory, different stories can be seen from how the Philippines welcomed the US imperialism’s military presence built on Philippine soil. While also countering the People’s Republic of China’s illegitimate claim in the West Philippine Sea, he supports the US’s military presence.
To protect its territorial and security interest from China, the Philippines simultaneously ‘surrendered’ its territorial integrity with the US. The Filipino officials and the US have made ‘substantial’ progress on their military projects. The US gets access to 4 more Philippines military bases.
In order to protect its security and economic interest, the Philipines use the mixed and ‘independent’ strategy; on the one hand, it is heavily engaged economically with China and, on the other hand, aligned its security interest with the US. With China, the Philippines committed solidly to maintaining the relationship and cooperation in agriculture, infrastructure, and energy between the two countries.
The Philippines intend to maintain reasonably balanced relations with the US and China. Marcos Jr is not choosing between the US over China, and he is not pursuing closer ties with the US at the expense of China, as he recognises the economic power and strong partnership after the Covid-19 pandemic.
Marcos Jr. did not want to have a war with China and could not afford to have war with China. In contrast, he views China as vital to the major pillar of his economic recovery plan, which focuses on infrastructure development projects.
He needs funds from China for his initiatives and also to boost economic growth after the recession in 2020 and 2021. China accounts for 20% of the Philippines’ foreign trade and is also a significant source of foreign direct investment. This preference to maintain warm economic relations with Beijing can also be seen after he meets with President Xi Jinping, emphasising the opportunity to revitalise the Philippines’ trade deficit with China.
