Ganjar Pranowo’s Bumpy Road Ahead of the 2024 Election?

After months of uncertainty, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo was announced as the presidential candidate by the ruling Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle or PDI-P. Instead of pursuing her daughter, Puan Maharani, who remains to have a low electability rate, the PDIP chairwoman expectedly named Ganjar.

Choosing Ganjar is crucial to maintain the party’s popular support. PDIP’s Secretary General also stated that the Chairwoman’s decision is aligned with the people’s will.

Ganjar has constantly been leading the polls since early 2022 over two other potential contenders, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan. A recent survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) on a head-to-head simulation between Prabowo and Ganjar reveals that Ganjar leads with 16.5 per cent, a slight difference of 0,3 per cent with Ganjar, while Anies is significantly low at only 9,8 per cent.

The survey indicates that both Ganjar and Prabowo have relatively balanced support from the voters. Although leading the vote, why would it be a rough journey for Ganjar in the 2024 election?

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Does Ganjar have full support from PDI-P and its supporters?

One of the most crucial moments for Ganjar was when his electability rate declined due to the backlash of his support to ban Israel from the FIFA U-20. Not only his stance and the sensitivity of public opinion on the issue, but Ganjar should also consider not making controversial statements that may affect his presidential ambition.

Ganjar enjoys strong backing from his political party, which currently controls almost 25% of the seats in parliament. According to Indonesia’s election regulations, PDI-P is the sole entity capable of nominating a presidential candidate without forming alliances with other parties. Additionally, the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) PPP and PAN have also decided to support Ganjar, leaving Golongan Karya (Golkar), which means an end to the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB). The big coalition of the political parties has benefited Ganjar, which could be a good step toward gaining mass support.

For the mass support, Ganjar is currently busy with his first political consolidation across East Java, and PDI-P said that they expected a high win rate in East Java of up to 70 per cent. Ganjar has a wide support base in Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, NTB, and NTT. Ganjar has a little support base in Jakarta and Banten as they mainly still support Anies Baswedan.

Ganjar still needs to gain more mass support to build his supporters and fixed voters. A survey from SMRC on 2 May also shows that from the critical voters’ perspectives, who are aware and critical of social and political issues, Prabowo leads the polls at 34.5, only around 1 per cent higher than Ganjar. Prabowo’s electability for the critical voters gradually increased, allegedly from Anies’ supporters who changed their support.

Prabowo still has the highest popularity in the survey on popularity, with 94% of respondents knowing him, while only 85% know Ganjar. Interestingly, for the critical voters who know all three candidates (Anies, Ganjar, and Prabowo) 37,5 decided to support Ganjar, while 30% preferred Prabowo. While those critical voters are mostly unwavering, Ganjar could approach the grassroots and uneducated voters to gain more voters who support him.

Jokowi as a kingmaker?

President Jokowi still has his influence in the political sphere, and his endorsement of a particular candidate may result in more public support through his volunteer groups. Jokowi may potentially be more influential than PDIP’s chairwoman in nominating presidential candidates as his public trust rate is at its peak.

In a recent people’s conference (Musra) of Jokowi’s supporters, Ganjar also received the highest support compared to Prabowo, but the basis of support is still fragmented. There is growing support for Prabowo, especially those in Aceh, Bengkulu, and Jambi. The volunteers pledge to follow and support the President’s instruction, so Jokowi still holds the knife to sway his supporters.

Jokowi has made an ambiguous approach to whom he is supporting. A recent survey conducted by the Indonesian Survey & Polling Institution (SPIN) regarding President Joko Widodo’s support for presidential candidates showed that respondents perceived President Jokowi to endorse Prabowo Subianto more than Ganjar Pranowo. Both candidates openly stated they would continue Jokowi’s development program, so Ganjar must convince the public about his approach and program.

Going down to the previous approach of election, cooperating with religious leaders may be an option to rebut the political identity that may appear. Unfortunately, political identity may still be used to gain mass support. PDI-P has openly stated they have made an approach to Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), and NU has also been positive to the intention with some requirements.