U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has announced his intention to hold a meeting with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in the United States, rather than in Taiwan. This announcement verifies the information initially disclosed in a report by the Financial Times.
The proposal to relocate from Taipei to California, allegedly put forth by the Tsai administration, has been acknowledged as a “de-escalating decision” by international analysts. This move also highlights the significance of pragmatism in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration’s approach to cross-Strait relations and foreign policy. Despite the fact that public polls indicate that most Taiwanese people would be receptive to a visit by the Speaker, the decision made by the Tsai government demonstrates adaptability, while also keeping the possibility of future trips open. Following the visit of then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei in August, the Chinese government reacted by conducting aggressive military exercises near Taiwan, intensifying the tensions in the Taiwan Strait. The primary reason why Tsai’s current action is perceived as cautious is that it restricts Beijing’s capacity to characterize the meeting as “provocative” and disturb the existing state of affairs between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. In addition, by rescheduling McCarthy’s travel to Taiwan, the opportunity to have both Democrat and Republican House Speakers in Taiwan within a year is forfeited. However, Tsai’s alternate plan guarantees her the opportunity to meet with a prominent Republican in the United States.
Since Tsai’s inauguration ceremony in 2016, the Tsai administration has consistently emphasized the significance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. In order to achieve this objective, Tsai has enhanced Taiwan’s relationships with democratic nations based on similar principles and mutual interests. In addition, she has implemented a series of significant reforms for Taiwan’s military, including as expanding the mandatory military service period from four months to one year. This measure aims to strengthen Taiwan’s ability to defend against any attacks from Chinese forces. However, due to the restriction that Tsai is unable to pursue a third term in 2024, several commentators have expressed apprehension regarding the consistency of her cross-Strait policy. Current deliberations have centered around the extent to which the future DPP presidential candidate will adhere to Tsai’s pragmatic approach. Nevertheless, Vice President William Lai Ching-te, who is expected to be the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) nominee for president, has consistently stated his dedication to maintaining Tsai Ing-wen’s steady stance on foreign policy and relations with mainland China.
As the vice president of Taiwan, Lai has openly endorsed numerous significant policy initiatives proposed by President Tsai, including the prolongation of Taiwan’s military conscription. Furthermore, he has been appointed multiple times as Tsai’s special representative for international delegations overseas. In addition, Lai has publicly stated that he will follow Tsai’s policies regarding the relationship between Taiwan and mainland China, namely maintaining the current state of affairs, which is widely supported by the Taiwanese public.
More importantly, the DPP has allegedly been discussing the inclusion of Tsai’s “Four Commitments” in the DPP’s party charter. The Four Commitments, unveiled by Tsai during her National Day speech in 2021, consist of a set of principles governing the management of cross-Strait relations. These principles include a steadfast dedication to a free and democratic constitutional system, the belief that the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China should not be subordinate to one another, a determination to resist any attempts to annex or encroach upon Taiwan’s sovereignty, and a firm commitment to ensuring that the future of the Republic of China (Taiwan) is determined in accordance with the will of the Taiwanese people. The inclusion of the “Four Commitments” in the party charter demonstrates a practical approach towards Taiwan’s status, as it indicates an intention to protect Taiwan’s sovereignty without challenging the existing constitutional framework of the Republic of China. This rules out the possibility of making a separate declaration of Taiwanese independence.
Some analysts perceive Lai Ching-te as having a proclivity towards independence, based on his past remarks about being a “pragmatic political advocate for Taiwan’s independence.” Greater attention should be allocated to the pivotal term “pragmatic.” Indeed, Lai has consistently embraced a moderate stance throughout the span of multiple years, emphasizing his pragmatic view that Taiwan is effectively independent and hence does not require a distinct proclamation of independence. Tsai’s remarks during a 2020 interview with the BBC align closely with this viewpoint of Taiwan’s national status. Furthermore, it aligns with the DPP’s “Resolution on Taiwan’s Future,” which has been a significant framework for the DPP’s perspective on cross-Strait ties since 1999. Lai’s changing perspectives demonstrate his recognition of Taiwan’s obligations in preserving regional stability, especially in a politically charged context with significant consequences.
Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy in the U.S. has demonstrated to Taiwan’s international allies that the DPP’s foreign policy is fundamentally driven by pragmatism. Moreover, there are compelling grounds to anticipate that pragmatism and caution would continue to be significant components of the policy framework of the DPP presidential candidate. Put simply, the DPP will persist in its commitment to adopt a resolute yet prudent strategy in handling cross-Strait relations, all the while striving to cultivate confidence with global allies.
