United Kingdom

The members of AUKUS: The United States, United Kingdom, and Australia have announced more details of how Australia will acquire nuclear submarines under a security pact for the Asia Pacific. Even though under the agreement, AUKUS is aimed at preserving a “free and open” Indo-Pacific, Australia will buy three American nuclear submarines.

Also according to a joint statement by the three country leaders on March 13^th, as they met in California, Australia will have the option to purchase two more of the nuclear submarines after the initial deal in the 2030s. As we all know, the security agreement is part of an ongoing effort by the three nations to respond to Beijing’s growing military and increasing presence in the region.

Speaking from Naval Base Point Loma in San Diego, Biden called the moment: “An inflection point in history, where the hard work of enhancing deterrence and promoting stability is going to affect the prospect of peace for decades to come”.[1] In turn, the Australian Prime Minister said that it was “the first time in 65 years and only the second time in history that the United States has shared its nuclear propulsion technology, and we thank you for it”.[2]

Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister cited growing challenges that might the three country faces “including Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, China’s growing assertiveness, and destabilizing behavior of Iran and North Korea”. “Faced with this new reality, it is more important than ever, that we strengthen the resilience of our own countries,” Rishi Sunak added.[3]

In the short term, AUKUS’ plan will embed Australian military and civilian personnel with the US and UK navies and at nuclear submarine bases in the countries. The US and UK will also increase nuclear submarine stops at Australian ports in the coming years, before beginning more substantial forward rotations in Australia.

And for the long term, by the early 2030s, Washington will likely then sell three Virginia-class submarines to Australia, according to the plan released by the three countries. Meanwhile, Australia and Britain will start building a new submarine model with US technology and support, with the UK expected to deliver its first home-built nuclear submarine by the late 2030s.[4]

On the other hand, Beijing has repeatedly accused the AUKUS of adopting a “Cold War mentality” that risks a greater escalation in the region.[5] While China’s military growth itself has included the building of a sophisticated naval fleet and the construction of artificial islands in the disputed South China Sea that observers say the country has turned into bases.

With Xi Jinping has just started his third presidential term, he vowed to bolster national security and build the military into a “great wall of steel,” in the first speech of his precedent-breaking third term as president.

In front of nearly 3.000 delegates of the National People’s Congress, he said “(We must) build the People’s Liberation Army into a great wall of steel that effectively safeguards national sovereignty, security, and development interests.”[6] Xi Jinping also said that China should master their own destiny with “The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation has entered an irreversible historical process.”[7]

According to Xi the “essence” of that rejuvenation is “national unification,” namely reunifying Taiwan with mainland China. And with Beijing has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it also increased fears Xi might do something similar in the near future with Taiwan.

Especially after Xi called for China to better coordinate development and security and set its economic growth target and increased its military budget. In early March, China set an official economic growth target of “around 5%” for 2023, as it seeks to revive the world’s second-largest economy after a year of tepid growth because of pandemic measures[8].

The economy added more than 12 million urban jobs last year, with the urban unemployment rate falling to 5.5%, according to the work report, which emphasized China’s focus on ensuring stable growth, employment, and prices amid global inflation and set the GDP target. China also unveiled its annual military budget for 2023, which will increase by 7.2% to roughly 1.55 trillion yuan in a draft budget report released.[9]

Pentagon leaders have identified China as the US military’s “pacing threat.” But fleet size numbers show that the US military can’t keep pace with China’s naval growth.[10] The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) surpassed the US Navy in fleet size sometime around 2020 and now has around 340 warships, according to the Pentagon’s 2022 China Military Power Report, released in November. China’s fleet is expected to grow to 400 ships in the next two years, the report says.

And maybe that is why the US agreed to share their nuclear technology. Captain Sam J. Tangredi says if history is any lesson, China’s numerical advantage is likely to lead to defeat for the US Navy in any war with China. Using technological advantage as an indicator of quality, Tangredi’s historical research on 28 naval wars (or wars with significant and protracted naval combat) indicates that 25 were won by the side with the larger fleet and only three could be said to have been won by a smaller fleet with superior technology.[11]

The arms race happening in Asia by great powers somehow has turned the region into a sensitive area that can spark conflict in seconds. Even though the joint statement by the member of AUKUS stated that these submarines are nuclear-powered, not nuclear-armed, and Australia is a non-nuclear weapons state and has committed to staying that way. It did not help to assure China that it threatens its sovereignty. With the AUKUS plans, and Xi just starting his new term, there is no certainty that the situation will instead be peaceful. Seen history itself, nations that compete would likely boost their naval forces even more, creating a non-stable region for those nations who has weak naval forces.

[1] “Remarks by Potus, Prime Minister Albanese Of Australia, And Prime Minister Sunak Of The United Kingdom”, U.S. Embassy Singapore, March 13, 2023, https://sg.usembassy.gov/remarks-by-president-biden-prime-minister-albanese-of-australia-and-prime-minister-sunak-of-the-united-kingdom-on-the-aukus-partnership/

[2] “Australia, US and UK unveil AUKUS nuclear submarine plans”, Al Jazeera, March 13, 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/13/biden-to-announce-nuclear-submarine-deal-at-australia-uk-talks

[3] Op. Cit., U.S. Embassy Singapore

[4] Op. Cit., Al Jazeera

[5] Alex Gatopoulos, “The battle for the Pacific: The countries competing for supremacy”, Al Jazeera, April 19, 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/4/19/the-battle-for-the-pacific-the-countries-competing-for-control

[6] Nectar Gan, “Xi Jinping vows to make China’s military a ‘great wall of steel’ in first speech of new presidential term”, CNN, March 13, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/13/china/china-xi-jinpong-first-speech-third-term-intl-hnk/index.html

[7] Ibid.

[8] Laura He, Simone McCarthy, and Wayne Chang, “China to increase defense spending 7.2%, sets economic growth target of ‘around 5%’ for 2023”, CNN, March 7, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/04/economy/china-two-sessions-gdp-growth-target-military-spending-intl-hnk/index.html

[9] Ibid.

[10] Brad Lendon, “Expert’s warning to US Navy on China: Bigger fleet almost always wins”, CNN, January 17, 2023,  https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/16/asia/china-navy-fleet-size-history-victory-intl-hnk-ml/index.html#:~:text=The%20People’s%20Liberation%20Army%20Navy,Power%20Report%2C%20released%20in%20November.

[11] Captain Sam J. Tangredi, U.S. Navy (Retired), “Bigger Fleets Win”, U.S. Naval Institute, January 2023, https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/january/bigger-fleets-win