Tonga

The complex geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific region has made the Pacific Islands a focal point for the rivalry between the US and China. China’s growing assertiveness has been a significant catalyst. In this region’s strategic significance, the US has broadened its Indo-Pacific strategy and shifted its attention to Pacific Islands.

The US tries to deepen diplomatic ties and spending in response to China’s expanding influence in the world, particularly in its ambitious Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) projects which have become a hidden intention of extensive infrastructure investments and development projects in various countries. Indeed development is one of the concerning issues in developing countries, and such an approach has been a good and attractive soft power strategy from China to expand its influence in the Pacific Islands.

From the US perspective, this becomes a concern that China’s effort will again expand its geopolitical influence and project power in the Indo-Pacific. To counter this, the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is on a tour to Indo-Pacific as he heads to Tonga, New Zealand, and Australia from 24-29 July 2023. Blinken will embark on his third trip to Asia in the past two months. He previously visited China and had talks with Southeast Asian officials in Indonesia.

The US policy shift leads to an increase in diplomatic personnel

The US has realized it can no longer depend only on Australia in its Indo-Pacific engagement as they expand its presence in the region. The State Department informed Congress about their intention to significantly increase diplomatic personnel and spending for new U.S. embassies in the Pacific islands. This move is in response to China’s growing assertiveness in the region. According to the update provided to Congress, China already has permanent diplomatic facilities in eight of the 12 Pacific island nations recognized by the United States, necessitating an effort to ‘catch up.’

“We’re a Pacific nation,” and “we very much see the future in the Indo-Pacific region,” Blinken said. He also emphasizes that the US ‘understands’ the priority of the people in the Pacific Islands, including climate change, development, and illegal fishing. Moreover, while China focuses on development and infrastructure project assistance, the US emphasizes shared values of democracy and the rule of law.

It is reported that the State Department aims to hire up to 40 staffers over the next five years for each of the four recently opened or soon-to-be-opened embassies in the Pacific, including the ones in Nuku’alofa (recently open in May 2023), Honiara (Solomon Islands), Port Vila (Vanuatu), and Tarawa (Kiribati). The department has allocated at least $10 million for these embassies to cover start-up, design, and construction expenses. The US will also support the return of Peace Corps volunteers post-pandemic Covid-19 to support risk and mitigation in the Islands. These diplomatic efforts signal a strong and serious intention of the US to reaffirm its commitment to the region by building trust and mutual understanding while also mitigating potential conflicts and challenges in the region.

In addition, to add ‘new perspectives’ on China, Blinken issued a cautionary note regarding aid provided by Beijing, which has recently experienced significant growth, stating that such assistance often comes with conditions attached. Blinken expressed concern about what he perceived as increasingly problematic conduct on China’s part in the region. He pointed out that China has engaged in ‘predatory’ economic practices and made investments that could undermine good governance while fostering corruption. Earlier this year, the former leader of Micronesia, David Panuelo, publicly accused China of harassment, espionage, and attempting to bribe members of his Cabinet.

In response to the US engagement, Tonga’s Prime Minister Hu’akavemeiliku Siaosi Sovaleni expressed that the presence of the United States on their soil signifies the strengthening of their partnership. He warmly welcomed the shared values of democracy, the rule of law, and respect for the rights and freedoms of all. In addition, the United States intends to establish embassies in Vanuatu and Kiribati, demonstrating its expanding presence in the region. Furthermore, in February, the U.S. restored its embassy in the Solomon Islands after a three-decade-long absence.

The concern of the diplomatic dilemma of ‘choosing sides’

Noting this competition of power; however, these smaller nations may face new challenges of balancing their diplomatic engagement without appearing to take sides, as both giant powers have significant implications for their economy, political, and security interests. The concern may force these countries to pursue a more diverse economic strategy, engaging with the US and China while mindfully managing potential risks.

The rivalry between the United States and China in the Indo-Pacific area adds to the region’s geopolitical instability. Smaller states risk becoming pawns in this great power game, perhaps sparking tensions and conflicts destabilizing regional harmony. The difficulty for Pacific island governments is to manage this rivalry while maintaining their long-term stability and sovereignty.

Choosing to strengthen connections with one major power over another may impact trade and economic relations. The United States diplomatic drive and economic endeavors may present substantial chances for Pacific island nations to diversify their economic partnerships. On the other hand, a potential backlash from China, as seen in other regions, may have consequences for trade and investments with the Asian economic giant.