Balance of Power Archives

December 13 2023

North Korea’s Spy Satellite: The Pivotal Role of Space in State Power

Anita Susanto Asia Pacific, Politics, Security and Defence, Tech, Think Balance of Power, ICBM, North Korea, Satellite, Security, Spy, Threat 0

North Korea declared that it has launched its first spy satellite into orbit and promised to carry out further launches in order to counter what it described as its “dangerous military maneuvers by its enemies.” Using a brand-new carrier rocket called “Chollima-1,” the satellite, called “Malligyong-1,” was launched late on November 21, according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).[1] If the spacecraft succeeds, analysts say, it may greatly enhance North Korea’s military capabilities, including the ability to target enemy forces more precisely.

On early December, North Korea began operating a satellite control office set up at the Pyongyang General Control Center of the National Aerospace Technology Administration, according to KCNA. The defense ministry of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) expressed the desire for an enhanced military posture as part of its war deterrence strategy, according to the news agency. The information gathered by the satellite will be conveyed to the relevant executive department of the Central Military Commission, and directives will be issued to major units and the General Reconnaissance Bureau of the Korean People’s Army.[2] This follows North Korea’s announcement last month that the reconnaissance satellite would commence its official mission on December 1 after a seven to 10-day fine-tuning process.

Pyongyang first attempted to put a satellite into orbit in late May, but the second stage of the rocket carrying the satellite malfunctioned and it crashed into the sea. According to KCNA, the mission failed because “the new engine system’s dependability and stability” were “poor” and “the gasoline utilized was “unstable.” A KCNA article at the time stated that “an error in the emergency blasting system during the third-stage flight” caused the second attempt to fail in August.[3] Japanese officials claim that the rocket split into many pieces before plummeting into the Pacific, East China, and Yellow seas.

Following the second unsuccessful launch attempt, North Korean Ambassador, Kim Song boldly said that the nation’s pursuit of the spy satellite program was within its “legitimate right as a sovereign state.[4] He refuted the claim that North Korea intended to use the satellite launch to get intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capability. The third effort on November 21st was anticipated by many and was hinted to by Pyongyang, which promised early on Wednesday to launch more to secure the capability to reconnoiter the south Korean region, according to KCNA.[5]

Even one satellite in orbit, according to analysts, improves North Korea’s military stance. “If successful, it will enhance the intelligence, surveillance, and command, control, and communications capabilities of the North Korean military.” That would strengthen the North’s capacity to command its forces” in any potential battle, according to CNN’s Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the Joint Intelligence Center of the US Pacific Command. According to Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “the satellite will give them a capability that they previously used to lack that can assist them in military targeting, it can assist them in damage assessment.”[6]

Is satellite really so crucial to a state?

From a realist perspective, the use of space satellites aligns with states’ fundamental drive for security and power. Satellites provide crucial capabilities for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and communication, offering states a strategic advantage in monitoring potential threats and safeguarding their interests. The right for self-defense is also very important because it justifies any action conducted by states to protect their people, territorial integrity, and any other domestic aspects.[7]

There has been some debate about the use of space for military objectives in the past. At that time, its exclusive function was for communication, which led to states continuously launching satellites to support the communication channels, states now deal with more than only space exploration problems.^[8] The control and utilization of space assets contribute to a state’s military strength and enhance its ability to gather information, make informed decisions, and project power globally.

The significance of space for state security began to emerge with notable importance during the latter half of the 20th century, marked by pivotal events such as the Cold War space race and the subsequent development of satellite technology. Satellites can provide an image of the surface of the Earth. Many organizations can use satellite imagery to gain intelligence, including military groups to critical national infrastructure. Positioning, navigation, and timing also Global Navigation Satellite System satellites are each a form of navigational satellite, and using several satellites in a cluster, these systems can provide precise time and location information to users on the ground. Some systems may provide additional information such as altitude.^[9]

The first artificial satellite itself called Sputnik 1, was launched from Baikonur Cosmodrome at Tyuratam, Kazakhstan which was at the time part of the Soviet Union on 1957. A few months after that, on the last day of January 1958, the U.S. would place its own satellite in orbit. NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory at the California Institute of Technology built the craft which led to James Van Allen’s discovery of radiation belts around Earth held in place by the planet’s magnetic field.[10]

Those activities led to The U.S.’ planned Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), sometimes known as Star Wars, aims to defend against any nuclear strikes. It was first developed in 1983 by President Ronald Reagan and was modeled after the Soviet Union. Suffice to say, states may have right to do anything in airspace because the concept of sovereignty has made them eligible to do so if their actions do not breach other states’ sovereignty, yet it is different on the case of space. The goal of the SDI itself was to intercept Soviet intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) at different stages of their flight in order to protect the U.S. from attack.[11]

As the geopolitical landscape evolved, satellite technology became integral to modern warfare and defense strategies. The Gulf War in 1990-1991 showcased the instrumental role of satellites in precision-guided weaponry and real-time intelligence.[12] As countries throughout the world have come to understand the vital role that space assets play in preserving security and strategic interests, the significance of satellite-based communication, surveillance, and reconnaissance has only increased over time. This has led to concerns in the West regarding North Korea’s satellite launch.

[1] Brad Lendon, Gawon Bae, and Yoonjong Seo, “North Korea claims to have put spy satellite into orbit. Analysts say that could make its military stronger”, CNN, November 22, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/22/asia/north-korea-spy-satellite-into-orbit-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

[2] “North Korea’s spy satellite operation office begins work: KCNA”, Kyodo News, December 3, 2023, https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2023/12/f8b0d1ea161f-n-koreas-spy-satellite-operation-office-begins-work-kcna.html

[3] Yoonjung Seo, Emiko Jozuka, and Mohammed Tawfeeq, “North Korea says its spy satellite launch has failed, again”, CNN, August 23, 2023, https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/23/asia/north-korea-second-satellite-launch-fails-intl-hnk/index.html

[4] Richard Roth, Pierre Meilhan, and Heather Chen, “Defiant North Korea tells UN its spy satellite program is its ‘legitimate right as a sovereign state’,” CNN, August 25, 2023 https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/25/world/north-korea-un-ambassador-defence-spy-satellite-launch-intl-hnk/index.html

[5] Op. Cit., Lendon, Bae, and Seo

[6] Justin McCurry, “North Korea’s spy satellite is a big deal, regardless of how advanced its technology is”, The guardian, November 22, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/22/north-korea-spy-satellite-malligyong-1-pyongyang-kim-jong-un

[7] Dio H. Tobing and Olivia N. Maryatmo, “Celestial Anarchy: States’ Right To Self-Defense In Outer Space”, JURIS GENTIUM LAW REVIEW, August 2016, pp. 9-18

[8] Ibid.

[9] “What are satellites used for? (and why they matter)”, Riskware, 2023, https://www.riskaware.co.uk/insight/what-are-satellites-used-for-why-satellites-matter/#:~:text=Satellites%20can%20provide%20an%20image,groups%20to%20critical%20national%20infrastructure.

[10] “Explorer 1”, Jet Propulsion Laboratory NASA, 2023 https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/explorer-1

[11] Op. Cit., Tobing and Maryatmo

[12] Larry Greenemeier, “GPS and the World’s First “Space War””, Scientific American, February 8, 2016, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/gps-and-the-world-s-first-space-war/#:~:text=Satellite%2Dbased%20navigation%20proved%20its%20mettle%20in%20helping%20the%20U.S.,where%20the%20Iraqis%20expected%20coalition

May 26 2023

Jalan Lain Menghadang China: AS dan Papua Nugini Menandatangani Pakta Pertahanan

Anita Susanto Asia Pacific, Politics, Security and Defence, Think amerika serikat, Balance of Power, China, Kebijakan Strategis, Papua Nugini, Pasifik 0

Persaingan antara Washington dan Beijing untuk mendapatkan pengaruh di kawasan Pasifik tampaknya meningkat setelah dilakukannya penandatanganan perjanjian kerja sama pertahanan bilateral baru antara Amerika Serikat dan Papua Nugini. Hal ini telah menimbulkan kontroversi di negara Kepulauan Pasifik dan juga bagi China.

Pada 22 Mei 2023, saat Blinken mengunjungi ibu kota negara Papua Nugini (PNG), Port Moresby, kesepakatan dan pengaturan keamanan laut ditandatangani oleh James Marape, perdana menteri PNG. Peningkatan kerja sama pertahanan ini akan meningkatkan akses AS ke militer dan fasilitas lain di PNG dan selanjutnya akan memperkuat hubungan keamanan Washington di Pasifik Selatan. “Kerja sama pertahanan dirancang oleh Amerika Serikat dan Papua Nugini sebagai mitra yang setara dan berdaulat,” kata Menteri Luar Negeri AS Antony Blinken dalam upacara penandatanganan pada hari Senin.[1]

Kawasan Pasifik, yang meliputi Australia, Selandia Baru, dan sejumlah pulau dan negara kepulauan dinilai memiliki kepentingan strategis yang sangat besar. Kawasan ini terletak di antara AS, China, dan Australia, menimbulkan kepentingan strategis untuk keamanan dan pertahanan. Contohnya, pada Perang Dunia ke II, wilayah Pasifik sendiri menjadi pangkalan dan pelabuhan vital untuk angkatan udara dan angkatan laut Jepang.[2]

Presiden AS, Joe Biden minggu lalu mempersingkat perjalanan ke Asia yang akan mencakup pemberhentian di Port Moresby dan Sydney, Australia, karena diskusi batas utang saat ini di AS, namun, perjalanan Blinken ke PNG menjadi kejutan. Dalam sebuah pernyataan yang dirilis pada 21 Mei lalu, PNG menggambarkan kesepakatannya dengan AS sebagai peluang untuk memperkuat kemampuan dan infrastruktur pertahanannya pada saat kekhawatiran keamanan internasional meningkat.

“Papua Nugini tidak memiliki musuh tetapi perlu dipersiapkan. Terutama terkait isu sengketa teritorial seperti dalam kasus Ukraina-Rusia,” kata pernyataan itu, dilansir dari CNN. “Perjanjian ini bukan tentang geopolitik tetapi lebih mengakui kebutuhan negara untuk membangun kemampuan pertahanannya karena sengketa perbatasan tidak dapat dihindari di masa depan,” katanya, seraya menambahkan bahwa hal itu tidak menghalangi pemerintah untuk “bekerja sama” dengan negara lain, termasuk China.[3]

Menurut Departemen Luar Negeri, tentara AS dan PNG sudah memiliki hubungan bantuan keamanan kooperatif yang sebagian besar berpusat pada latihan kemanusiaan bersama dan pelatihan personel militer PNG.[4] Kesepakatan baru ini telah mendorong diskusi di Papua Nugini, terutama karena kurangnya transparansi pemerintah atas apa yang terkandung di dalamnya dan dugaan kebocoran draf di internet.

AS mengikuti jejak China?

Dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, China tengah meningkatkan kekuatan angkatan lautnya secara signifikan. Angkatan Laut Tentara Pembebasan Rakyat (PLA Navy) melampaui Angkatan Laut AS dalam ukuran armada sekitar tahun 2020 dan dari informasi terakhir, Beijing memiliki sekitar 340 kapal perang, menurut Laporan Kekuatan Militer China 2022 versi Pentagon yang dirilis pada November lalu. Armada China diperkirakan akan menambah 400 kapal dalam dua tahun ke depan, menurut laporan yang sama.^[5]

Keagresifan China dalam meningkatkan kekuatan militernya telah membuat wilayah Pasifik menjadi semakin penting bagi dua kekuatan besar. Kekhawatiran ini meningkat tahun lalu setelah Beijing menandatangani perjanjian keamanan dengan Kepulauan Solomon. Perjanjian kerangka kerja keamanan bilateral antara Beijing dan Kepulauan Solomon dilakukan berdasarkan permintaan dan kebutuhan Pulau Solomon dam tujuannya adalah untuk membantu Kepulauan Solomon menjaga tatanan sosial.

Walaupun begitu, usaha China dalam memperkuat pengaruhnya di wilayah Pasifik mengalami beberapa kemunduran. Pakta pertahanan dengan Fiji dilaporkan mengakhiri perjanjian pelatihan polisinya dengan China awal tahun ini “adalah kemenangan besar, membuat negara-negara Pasifik terbesar berpihak pada AS dalam upayanya untuk membatasi pengaruh China di kawasan itu,” kata Laveil, menambahkan bahwa Marape dapat “memanfaatkan ancaman China” untuk meminta lebih banyak bantuan pembangunan dari AS.

Setelah perjanjian China-Kepulauan Solomon, negara-negara di seluruh dunia, terutama AS mulai memfokuskan diri terhadap wilayah Pasifik. Saat ini, lalu lintas kunjungan, pertemuan, dan strategi jalur cepat untuk melawan pengaruh Tiongkok di Pasifik telah berdampak pada hampir setiap negara atau teritori, pulau, dan atol Pasifik dalam berbagai tingkat.[6] Hal ini dapat terlihat dari bagaimana berbagai negara “masuk” ke wilayah ini seperti mitra AS, Korea Selatan yang berusaha menghalau upaya diplomatik dan ekonomi untuk melawan China ini telah disertai dengan peningkatan perhatian pertahanan yang sangat besar, tidak terkecuali melalui perjanjian AUKUS antara Australia, Inggris, dan Amerika Serikat.

Jelas terlihat bagaimana AS berusaha mengimbangi kekuatan dimana China tengah bergerak. Gagasan keseimbangan kekuasaan sendiri menyatakan bahwa negara bertujuan untuk pemerataan kekuasaan untuk mencegah dominasi oleh satu negara. Sementara para diplomat dan politisi sepanjang sejarah telah menggunakan konsep keseimbangan kekuasaan dalam berbagai keadaan dan untuk berbagai tujuan, konsep ini juga merupakan teori politik internasional yang digunakan oleh para sarjana untuk menjelaskan fenomena di dunia sekitar kita saat ini.[7] Berpijaknya AS di wilayah Pasifik lewat perjanjian dengan PNG merupakan salah satunya.

[1] “Papua New Guinea, US sign defence and maritime pact”, Al Jazeera, 22 Mei 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/22/papua-new-guinea-us-to-sign-security-pact-with-eye-on-china

[2] Lucas Myers, “The Pacific War’s Lessons for the Continued Strategic Importance of Oceania”, Wilson Center, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/pacific-wars-lessons-continued-strategic-importance-oceania#:~:text=The%20South%20Pacific%20islands%20provided,Japanese%20air%20and%20naval%20forces.

[3] Simone McCarthy, “US and Papua New Guinea sign defense pact as Washington, Beijing vie for influence in the Pacific”, CNN, 22 Mei 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/22/asia/us-papua-new-guinea-defense-cooperation-agreement-intl-hnk/index.html

[4] Ibid.

[5] Brad Lendon, “Expert’s warning to US Navy on China: Bigger fleet almost always wins”, CNN. 17 Januari 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/16/asia/china-navy-fleet-size-history-victory-intl-hnk-ml/index.html#:~:text=The%20People’s%20Liberation%20Army%20Navy,two%20years%2C%20the%20report%20says.

[6] Patricia O’Brien, “China in the Pacific: The Fiji Case”, The Diplomat, 1 Mei 2023, https://thediplomat.com/2023/05/china-in-the-pacific-the-fiji-case/

[7] Morten Skumsrud Andersen. “Balance of Power”, Wilson Library, 27 Februari 2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118885154.dipl0339