aid

In a recent meeting of the European Union Foreign Minister on the aid for Ukraine, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrel, said, “I’m sure this decision (by the US) will be reconsidered and altogether, we’ll continue to be on your side,” Josep Borrell told reporters in Kyiv. The statement refers to the decision by the US Congress not to approve $6 billion for military assistance that Ukraine urgently needs. However, the European allies, the Pentagon, and the White House have asked Congress to reconsider the decision. Until now, US President Joe Biden has assured that American aid to Ukraine will continue to flow for the ongoing war with Russia. What does this change of attitude mean to happen?

Ongoing financial and military aid to Ukraine

Since the beginning of the war in February 2022, the US has approved four rounds of aid to Ukraine, summing about $113 billion, including additional support in weapons, millions of ammunition, and grenades for supporting Ukraine against Russia. Also, Biden has called on Congress to provide additional funds of around $24 billion. This amount has been a long discussion for internal politicians in the US, including former President Donald Trump, who view the amount sent by the US and the EU as imbalanced as the EU has sent around $88 billion in aid, although it had committed to longer-term aid. The war is still occurring; thus, aid must keep flowing for better resistance to the country. 

The failure to push back the Russian forces from Ukraine raised questions to some members of Congress about the continuation of the US financial support to Ukraine. Some opinion polls have also indicated that most Americans now oppose additional aid to Kyiv. Changing of view about the US foreign policy might change how the country perceives Ukraine and its war with Russia. When the Ukraine Zelenskyy arrived in Washington, he was treated as an interloper rather than an inspiring hero. This is not a good signal for how some Western politicians view Zelenskyy as the leader of Ukraine, as they view that there is no breakthrough for countering Russia in its territory yet.

One of the most vocal ones is the hard-right flank of Republicans, the Republican front-runner in the 2024 race for the White House, who is against more financial support for Ukraine. Approval for Ukraine assistance may even become more difficult as the Republican resists the aid gaining momentum, adding to the hard-right resistance to the budget. The polarised politics in America have influenced their foreign policy, and in some context, it seems rational as they want to see progress in the assistance that has been given. Otherwise, they would like to use the fund for domestic purposes.

Some speakers, such as Kevin McCarthy and R-Calif, have previously objected to it; he also stated that he supports the idea of ensuring Ukraine has the weapons; however, the priority is securing the US-Mexico borders. ‘The Ukraine fatigue’ has also been felt by European countries like Poland, which have begun to pull back their support for the Ukraine war, stating they must prioritize their defense. The inward-looking statements reflect that the support for Ukraine might be even less than before, and resulted in some countries that may even have to raise their budgets to support the war in Ukraine.

Why it matters?

Although Biden reassured that the fund would continue for Ukraine, in any case, this has shown Russia that the West has been divided in supporting Ukraine. Biden will need to convince its domestic politicians to keep funding the war in Ukraine as it is still one of the vital interests of the US in Europe. Zelenskyy, who is heavily dependent on Europe, still has support from the EU and has clearly stated that they will continue the military backing worth 5 billion euros. Indeed, the war in Ukraine directly affects Europe and is seen as an existential threat to regional stability and peace. Ukraine has also stated that what is happening in Ukraine is more significant than just Ukraine, as it affects the stability in the world, including those in Asia and Africa. Gaining more support is crucial for Ukraine politically and economically; however, sometimes, the supporter already has much on their plate. Countries sometimes face a dilemma to focus more on domestic or international affairs or between these two arenas. In addition, they might also run out of ammunition for Ukraine, like what has been stated by the UK.

The existence and survival of Ukraine have depended on the rising political conflict in the US and some Western countries. Indeed, Western countries still have national interests in keeping Russia out of Ukraine for political, ideological, and security objectives. A direct border with enemies will surely raise insecurities in the European region. Thus, Westerns need to keep funding Ukraine to prevent an even bigger war from happening in Europe. As a reciprocal action, Ukraine needs help from the military to keep fighting and for political, economic, and social assistance. Without this continuous support, Ukraine may not last on its own.