South Korea welcomed its new President, Yoon Suk-Yeol, a conservative from the People Power Party, who won the election with a 0.8 percentage point over Lee Jae-Myung of the ruling Democratic Party. The new president has many domestic and global problems, including the escalating nuclear threats from its closest neighbor, North Korea. President Yoon criticized the former South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s approach, which is seen as weak in responding to North Korea’s missile test.
Yoon promises a tough stance on North Korea and may impose sanctions against Pyongyang. Rather than seeing North Korea as a ‘negotiating partner,’ like in the previous leadership, Cheong Seong-chang from the Center for North Korea Studies at the Sejong Institute argues that Yoon, as the current president, views North Korea as a principal enemy and threat. Nonetheless, in his inauguration speech, Yoon still opens the way for diplomacy with North Korea. Yoon stressed that he has “an audacious plan” to help North Korea’s economy if it denuclearises. Why would Yoon offer economic cooperation to North Korea, and will this approach work?
North Korea’s military modernization for political and economic tool
North Korea has possessed weapons of mass destruction for years ago. It has launched around 15 missiles this year, including a long-range missile and a submarine-fired ballistic missile capable of reaching South Korea and the United States bases in Asia. Council on Foreign Relations estimated that North Korea has more than sixty nuclear weapons with more than 1.2 million military personnel. The West also believed that North Korea had developed chemical and biological weapons. South Korea has detected that North Korea has rebuilt a tunnel at the nuclear testing ground and expects the North to conduct more nuclear tests. North Korea will likely push for more nuclear tests to show its existence when the West focuses on the Russia-Ukraine issue. These military capabilities are for security purposes and North Korea’s regime survival.
Although North Korea is considered the poorest country, it uses almost a quarter of its gross domestic product (GDP) for military power. Even though North Korea faced economic crisis and famine challenges, it ranked first in terms of the military spending percentage in GDP between 2007-2017. It should be noted that the amount of the spending is only 10 percent of South Korea’s military expenditure. Nevertheless, North Korea has been obsessed with its nuclear weapon, as it is also a tool for survival and economic aid flow. Noting the geographic rivalities, North Korea uses its nuclear power to threaten South Korea and its ally’s security while at the same time gaining economic and military aid from its communist partners such as China and Russia. North Korea cannot be self-reliant economically and militarily; thus, it prefers to rely on foreign aid.
Why would Yoon offer economic cooperation?
Economic cooperation and aid are a matter of national security. Borgen project (2018) argues that foreign aid is beneficial to foreign policy and national security, and it should be seen as a stability enhancement to places with radical influence. One of the aspects of foreign is economic aid that is used for strategic development assistance and as a tool for political and economic engagement in the most vulnerable places. In South Korean and North Korean security issues, President Yoon tries to use economic cooperation to enhance his national security.
The economic approach is in line with the statement made by the president of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, who spoke about his plan to increase the development and citizens’ living standards. Noting the economic condition and North Korea after the pandemic, the economy has been vital for Kim Jong-un and his citizens. Foreign aid may be one of the most needed aspects for North Korea now. On the other side, South Korea realizes that military security is as important as economic and human security, and it tries to use this approach. Yoon offered an economic plan in exchange for a security guarantee at the national and regional, though he did not provide many details about it. Nevertheless, North Korea may not accept South Korea’s offer, as it depends on most of its trade flow to China. It is also unlikely that economic cooperation went smooth as it may overlap with current sanctions and restrictions on North Korea.
Yoon national security advisor, Kim Sung-Han, stated that South Korea might reduce sanctions and offer economic aid for denuclearization measures. The economic approach seems to be one of the offers that use for gaining more economic engagement with North Korea, but at the same time as a ‘courtesy’ from South Korea. Knowing that North Korea would not give up on its nuclear weapons, Yoon has promised a tough and challenging approach to North Korea. Yoon started his presidency as the new president in Yongsan with a briefing by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reflecting his focus on national security issues. Thus, his presidency will build stronger relations with the US in military and political power to deter North Korea’s threat.
There is no high expectation of North Korea’s nuclear disarmament, as no matter how numerous international sanctions are given, North Korea will not stop developing its weapons. The more nuclear weapons developed, the more their capabilities were sophisticated, and it was dangerous for their neighbor. Thus, in the interview with VOA, Yoon expects a joint military operation with the US if a war breaks out; therefore, more placement and deployment of US military assistance on the Korean Peninsula is possible. Yoon plans to buy more Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), an American anti-ballistic missile defense system to deter, tackle, and intercept opponent’s missiles. Both soft and hard approaches are used to deal with North Korea’s nuclear issues; though the economic approach might not be accepted, it is a way to give it a shot.