Menu

Houti Rebels

Serangan Houthi terhadap pelayaran menyoroti dilema drone

, , , , , , 0

Sehari setelah dugaan serangan drone terhadap kapal tanker kimia berbendera Liberia, MV Chem Pluto, di Laut Arab pada tanggal 23 Desember,[1] militan Houthi yang berbasis di Yaman dikabarkan melakukan serangan terhadap kapal tanker minyak mentah berbendera Gabon.[2] Sai Baba, seperti halnya Chem Pluto, sedang menuju ke India ketika sebuah pesawat tak berawak bersenjata menyerangnya, yang dilaporkan sebagai serangan ke-15 oleh militan Houthi terhadap kapal-kapal komersial dalam beberapa minggu terakhir.

Serangan kembar ini telah menyebabkan keresahan yang mendalam di antara negara-negara regional. Pasukan maritim di Samudra Hindia, meskipun cukup mahir dalam memerangi bajak laut, hanya memiliki sedikit pengalaman dalam menangani serangan drone terhadap pelayaran sipil. Banyak yang tidak terbiasa dengan taktik radikal yang digunakan oleh Houthi, khususnya serangan pesawat tak berawak. Yang lebih mengkhawatirkan adalah faktor penyangkalan dalam serangan drone. Baik Houthi maupun kelompok lain tidak ada yang mengaku bertanggung jawab atas serangan terhadap Chem Pluto. Banyak yang mengatakan bahwa serangan tersebut merupakan pertanda yang meresahkan dari serangan drone yang tidak diklaim di perairan yang dekat dengan India.

Sementara itu, Angkatan Laut India (IN) sedang fokus untuk mengidentifikasi sumber serangan drone tersebut. Penyelidikan awal terhadap puing-puing yang ditemukan dari Chem Pluto telah mengisyaratkan[3] kemungkinan penggunaan amunisi Shahed 136 Iran yang berkeliaran. Shahed 136 adalah varian dari drone yang dapat dibuang dari Geran-2 Rusia, dengan jangkauan 2.500 km dan hulu ledak seberat 50 kg. Houthi dilaporkan menggunakan drone ini dalam Perang Saudara Yaman pada 2020. Temuan ini sepertinya tidak akan meyakinkan Amerika Serikat (AS), yang berpendapat bahwa serangan terhadap Chem Pluto berasal dari Iran. Washington mengklaim bahwa Iran secara teratur melakukan serangan terhadap kapal-kapal komersial yang berjarak ratusan mil dari garis pantainya, tetapi penilaian tersebut tidak sejalan dengan pendapat para ahli lainnya.[4] Tampaknya tidak jelas bagi banyak pengamat India apa yang ingin dicapai Teheran dengan melakukan serangan di perairan Chem Pluto yang dekat dengan India, negara yang bersahabat dengan Iran.

Kepemimpinan politik dan militer India, meskipun bertekad untuk menemukan sumber serangan tersebut, tetap berhati-hati. Awal pekan ini, pada saat peluncuran kapal perusak rudal berpeluru kendali terbaru India, INS Imphal, Menteri Pertahanan Rajnath Singh, tanpa menyebutkan nama-nama pelaku, menggarisbawahi tekad pemerintah untuk menemukan para pelaku. “Kami akan menemukan mereka dari kedalaman laut dan mengambil tindakan tegas terhadap mereka,” tegasnya.[5]

Pernyataan menteri ini mungkin memberikan rasa percaya diri bagi para pengirim barang India, tetapi hal ini tidak mengurangi kesulitan dalam memerangi pesawat tak berawak di laut. Komplikasi utamanya adalah tidak memadainya tindakan penanggulangan taktis.[6] Satu-satunya teknologi yang efektif untuk pertahanan terhadap serangan drone udara – pengacau dan spoofing – tidak tersedia untuk kapal dagang. Kesulitan ini diperparah dengan fakta bahwa banyak teknik anti-drone yang tidak diketahui bekerja dengan baik dalam kondisi cuaca tertentu.[7] Jamming, khususnya, merupakan masalah karena berpotensi mengganggu sistem komunikasi yang bersahabat. Spoofing, yang berguna untuk membingungkan sistem kontrol drone, juga terkadang dapat menyebabkan target berperilaku tidak menentu.[8] Senjata energi terarah seperti sistem laser dan senjata gelombang mikro berdaya tinggi lebih efektif dalam melawan drone bersenjata, tetapi teknologi ini mahal dan tidak dapat diakses oleh banyak angkatan laut regional.

Seperti yang dilihat oleh beberapa pihak, satu-satunya pilihan yang layak bagi India dan negara-negara regional lainnya adalah bergabung dengan koalisi yang dipimpin oleh Amerika Serikat, Pasukan Maritim Gabungan (Combined Maritime Forces – CMF). India baru-baru ini menjadi anggota penuh CMF[9] dan telah melakukan latihan dengan angkatan laut koalisi di Samudra Hindia Barat.[10] Dari lima gugus tugas yang dioperasikan CMF, Gugus Tugas Gabungan 153-yang bertanggung jawab atas keamanan di Laut Merah-kemungkinan besar akan memimpin Operasi Penjaga Kemakmuran.[11] Para pengamat mengatakan bahwa IN dapat membantu pasukan koalisi menciptakan koridor transit yang aman dengan kapal-kapal perang yang melakukan patroli independen, membersihkan perairan di dalamnya. Keberhasilan upaya ini akan bergantung pada kemampuannya untuk menciptakan zona aman yang membentang dari Laut Merah Selatan ke Teluk Aden dan sekitarnya.

Houthi, tentu saja, berusaha mengeksploitasi geopolitik yang kompleks dari konflik Israel-Palestina untuk melawan oposisi mereka. Para militan kemungkinan akan memanfaatkan perbedaan di antara kekuatan-kekuatan dunia untuk menjelajah lebih jauh ke daerah-daerah yang tidak dipertahankan di Samudra Hindia, seperti Laut Arab. Yang terpenting, serangan Houthi tidak lagi terbatas pada kapal-kapal komersial yang terkait dengan Israel. MV Sai Baba yang ditargetkan oleh para militan di Laut Merah tidak memiliki hubungan dengan Israel.

Kekuatan global mengakui urgensi untuk meningkatkan respons yang layak terhadap ancaman Houthi. Serangan militan telah membuat perdagangan global bertekuk lutut. Sepuluh perusahaan pelayaran global terkemuka, termasuk Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, CMA CMG, dan MSC, telah menangguhkan layanan mereka di Laut Merah, dan lebih banyak lagi perusahaan lain yang berjanji untuk mengikutinya. Upaya AS untuk meyakinkan para pengirim barang global dengan membentuk koalisi angkatan laut untuk melindungi pelayaran regional masih belum terwujud dengan baik. Operasi Penjaga Kemakmuran, yang awalnya didukung oleh lebih dari 20 negara, dalam beberapa hari terakhir telah membuat Prancis, Italia, dan Spanyol menarik diri, sebuah kemunduran yang signifikan bagi koalisi tersebut.

Terlepas dari perbedaan politik di antara negara-negara maritim utama, terdapat konsensus di sekitar satu masalah: Ketidaksiapan kolektif negara-negara regional untuk menghadapi ancaman Houthi. Para ahli angkatan laut sepakat bahwa taktik dan strategi perang anti-drone di laut masih terus berkembang, dan beberapa metode penargetan drone tidak seefektif yang selama ini diyakini. Minggu lalu, kapal perang AS di Laut Merah mengklaim telah menembak jatuh 14 drone bersenjata.[12] Belum diketahui senjata apa yang digunakan, tetapi kemungkinan senjata jarak jauh digunakan dalam kombinasi dengan rudal. Angkatan laut regional mengakui bahwa mereka tidak memiliki koordinasi operasional dan interoperabilitas yang diperlukan untuk melawan Houthi secara efektif.

Akan tetapi, ada kemungkinan jawaban untuk ancaman drone di Samudra Hindia Barat. Dengan kesadaran situasional yang lebih baik dan peralatan yang lebih baik, pasukan maritim dapat mengatasi pesawat tak berawak Houthi. Paling tidak, angkatan laut regional harus keluar dari zona nyaman mereka dan meningkatkan permainan operasional mereka. Satu-satunya pilihan realistis bagi negara-negara Samudra Hindia lainnya mungkin adalah bekerja sama dengan mitra yang lebih mampu dan bersedia.

[1] Kalyan Ray. MV Chem Pluto strike was by a drone, confirm Navy; 3 missile destroyers are on development in Arabian Sea. Deccan Herald. 26 Desember 2023. https://www.deccanherald.com/india/mv-chem-pluto-strike-was-by-a-drone-confirms-navy-3-missile-destroyers-are-on-deployment-in-arabian-sea-2824852

[2] Amrita Nayak Dutta. Gabon-flagged vessel with Indian crew comes under drone attack in Red Sea. Indian Express. 24 Desember 2023. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/gabon-flagged-vessel-indian-crew-drone-attack-red-sea-9081199/

[3] Prisha. MV Chem Pluto drone attack: Initial investigation of debris hints at Iran link, says report. Wion. 27 Desember 2023. https://www.wionews.com/india-news/mv-chem-pluto-drone-attack-initial-investigation-of-debris-hints-at-iran-link-report-673892

[4] Rajesh Rajagopalan. Iran, China, and Russia are leading the world into a dangerous place with grey-zone tactics. The Print. 27 Desember 2023. https://theprint.in/opinion/iran-china-and-russia-are-leading-the-world-into-a-dangerous-place-with-grey-zone-tactics/1901507/

[5] The Times of India. Rajnath:Will track down ship attackers even from sea depths. 27 Desember 2023. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/rajnath-will-track-down-ship-attackers-even-from-sea-depths/articleshow/106305997.cms

[6] Havard Haustvedt. Red Sea Drones: How to counter Houthi Maritime Tactics. War on the Rock. https://warontherocks.com/2021/09/red-sea-drones-how-to-counter-houthi-maritime-tactics/

[7] Robin Radar Systems. 10 Types of Counter Drone Technology To Detect And Stop Drones Today. https://www.robinradar.com/press/blog/10-counter-drone-technologies-to-detect-and-stop-drones-today

[8] Davidovich B, Nassi B, Elovici Y. Towards the Detection of GPS Spoofing Attacks against Drones by Analyzing Camera’s Video Stream. Sensors. 2022; 22(7):2608. https://doi.org/10.3390/s22072608

[9] Ministry of External Affairs Governemnt of India. Joint Statement: Fifth Annual India-U.S. 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue. 10 November 2023. https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/37252/Joint_Statement_Fifth_Annual_IndiaUS_22_Ministerial_Dialogue

[10] Kaylan Ray. Indian warship in Bahrain for CMF drills; officials meet onboard INS Vikrant. Deccan Herald. 6 Maret 2023. https://www.deccanherald.com/india/indian-warship-in-bahrain-for-cmf-drill-officials-meet-onboard-ins-vikrant-1197522.html

[11] Dan Sabbagh. US announces naval coalition to defend Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks. The Guardian. 18 Desember 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks

[12] Navy Lookout. Guns, missiles and drones- naval actions in the Red Sea. 19 Desember 2023. https://www.navylookout.com/guns-missiles-and-drones-naval-actions-in-the-red-sea/

The Imperative Peril of America’s Military Strikes in Yemen

, , , , 0

 

Through joint military action with Britain, the United States has made a strong statement to the Houthi rebels and their Iranian supporters. This action signifies a shift from a purely defensive stance to a more proactive approach in the Red Sea, with the aim of putting an end to the group’s attacks on commercial ships in the area.

 

It remains uncertain if the chosen approach will yield results, considering the Houthis’ stubbornness and their potential gains from engaging in conflict with the United States. This clash enhances their reputation among U.S. adversaries in the region and diverts attention from their poor governance of northwestern Yemen and the capital. However, due to the increasing danger that the group presents to the freedom of commerce and navigation in the Red Sea, which is a crucial global shipping route and a key American interest in the region, the United States had no choice but to take action.

 

President Biden expressed his readiness to take additional measures to safeguard our citizens and ensure the smooth operation of global trade, if needed. If he fully embraces a more proactive strategy, ensuring that American forces in the region have the necessary authority and resources, and combines any future use of force with diplomatic initiatives to resolve the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, his prospects of containing the Houthis will be enhanced.

 

Following Hamas’s recent attack and Israel’s subsequent declaration of war, the Houthis have made a firm commitment to carry out targeted assaults on Israeli ships and other vessels transporting goods to what they consider “occupied Palestinian ports.” Their aim is to demonstrate unwavering support for the Palestinians in Gaza. Over the past few weeks, there has been a significant increase in the number of ships being targeted or disrupted by the Houthis in international shipping lanes. On January 11th, a significant number of targets in Yemen were struck by the United States and a small coalition of allies. These targets included Houthi radar systems, air defense systems, and storage and launch sites. On Friday, the United States executed additional strikes targeting the Houthis.

 

The potential consequences of the attacks by the United States and Britain are evident. The State Department removed the Houthis from its list of foreign terrorist organizations in February 2021 to ease the transfer of humanitarian assistance to parts of Yemen under Houthi control. The Houthis have made it clear that they will respond in kind. That could potentially result in an increase in tensions that Washington is actively trying to prevent, as shown by Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s frequent trips to the area in recent weeks. The track record of achieving success against entrenched, capable, and resilient militias in the Middle East through the sole reliance on military force is quite dismal. Israel has long struggled to contain the threat posed by Hezbollah and Hamas, with little success. Israel’s goal of eliminating Hamas in Gaza is highly unlikely to be achieved in the ongoing conflict.

 

One of the key uncertainties in this new confrontation is the nature of the Houthis’ alliance with Iran. Iran’s support for the Houthis has been growing steadily since 2014. This support allows Iran to gain access to the strategically important Bab al-Mandab Strait and assert its influence in the region, particularly in Saudi Arabia’s vicinity. It is believed that Iranian resources, support, and knowledge have played a role in facilitating the group’s recent attacks on commercial targets in the Red Sea. Thanks to the academic support, the Houthis may no longer possess the capability to cause substantial damage to shipping in that area. However, the extent of Iran’s influence over the Houthi leadership is still uncertain, including their ability to command the group to cease its aggressive actions. The rebels appear to have a greater degree of independence compared to other factions within Iran’s proxy network, allowing them to employ strategic violence against their adversaries. Despite potential diplomatic pressure or the threat of force, it is uncertain whether Iran’s support to the Houthis would cease. Even if it did, the group may still utilize its existing arsenal, which should not be underestimated. The Houthis have the potential to sustain themselves financially, thanks to their control over state revenues and resources in Yemen.

 

Despite the potential dangers involved, the United States is compelled to address the Houthis’ aggressive actions. The Red Sea holds significant importance for both the United States and the international community due to its role as a crucial entry point for ships utilizing the Suez Canal. This canal is responsible for facilitating 12 percent of global trade, making it a vital hub for economic activities worldwide. There are reasons to be hopeful that this escalation will not escalate further. There is a valid concern regarding the potential for Iran to retaliate on behalf of the Houthis. However, it is important to note that Tehran is a cautious and can be deterred. In the late 1980s, the U.S. military took action to protect freedom of navigation in international waters. Operation Praying Mantis was launched by the U.S. Navy in April 1988 as a response to Iran’s use of a mine against an American warship. This operation played a significant role in resolving a long-standing regional conflict. In a recent statement, Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., a former head of U.S. Central Command, highlighted the effectiveness of an American drone strike in preventing Iran from further escalating its aggression against U.S. interests in the region. The strike, which resulted in the death of the top Iranian commander Qassim Suleimani in Iraq in 2020, played a crucial role in maintaining stability. However, it is important for the U.S. to consider alternative approaches beyond solely relying on military strategies. Furthermore, it is crucial to actively seek improved diplomatic strategies concerning Gaza and the surrounding area. The Houthis assert that their campaign aims to assist Hamas and halt Israel’s conflict, yet the U.S. military has stated that some of the Houthis’ recent assaults in the Red Sea did not specifically target vessels associated with or en route to or from Israel. Washington has the opportunity to demonstrate its academic prowess by achieving a diplomatic breakthrough in Gaza, or perhaps even a cease-fire, despite the fact that the U.S. has not yet made such a demand. While it may not put an end to Houthi aggression, it would strengthen Washington’s diplomatic endeavors to form a broader international coalition focused on tackling the Houthi threat. As the Houthis continue to display their stubbornness and disregard for consequences, the global community is increasingly united in their efforts to confront them. This growing consensus allows for stronger diplomatic pressure to be applied, such as imposing stringent economic sanctions and reclassifying them as a terrorist organization.

 

The Houthis have been a long-standing concern that the global community has unfortunately overlooked, enabling its growth and impact to intensify. However, it is certainly within reach. Addressing this complex issue necessitates a recognition of the importance of political will, international cooperation, and a humble understanding of the constraints of U.S. influence in a dynamic Middle East.