Army

Russia has experienced a significant reduction in its military strength, with an 87 percent decline in active-duty ground troops and a two-thirds loss of tanks since the invasion of Ukraine, according to a declassified US intelligence assessment.[1] Despite these heavy losses, President Putin is determined to continue the war, entering its two-year mark soon. US officials warn of Ukraine’s vulnerability, noting a stalled counteroffensive and the unlikely prospect of major gains in the coming months.

The assessment, delivered to Congress on the second week of December 2023, coincides with debates among Republicans over additional funding for Ukraine since President Zelensky’s visit to Washington aims to secure vital military and economic aid.[2] Russia sustains its war effort by relaxing recruitment standards and using older equipment from Soviet-era stockpiles, nevertheless, the assessment highlights a setback of 15 years in Russia’s effort to modernize its ground force.[3]

Out of the 360,000 troops deployed to Ukraine, Russia has lost 315,000, along with significant tank and armoured vehicle losses.[4] By late November, Russia had depleted over a quarter of its pre-invasion stockpiles, diminishing the scale of its offensive operations. The challenging political environment in Washington poses a significant risk to Ukraine, with some Republicans opposing additional funding and others linking it to broader spending packages. The Biden administration warns of imminent financial constraints on aid to Ukraine.[5]

Declassified intelligence suggests that Russia anticipates a winter military deadlock to weaken Western support for Ukraine. Despite casualties and shortages, Russia believes it can gain an advantage. Since the October offensive, the Russian military has suffered over 13,000 casualties along a specific axis, along with significant combat vehicle losses. Before the invasion, Russia had around 900,000 active-duty troops.[6] Since then, plans to increase the armed forces to 1.5 million have been announced, including conscription rounds and reliance on unconventional sources like the Wagner Group and extended age limits for reservists.

Opportunity for Diplomacy and Security Dilemma

The revealed loss of Russian troops could create opportunities for diplomatic mediation initiatives, or peace talks, as Russia’s military vulnerabilities could affect its willingness to negotiate with international actors. Revelations of Russia’s heavy troop losses in the conflict with Ukraine have triggered important changes in the broader geopolitical landscape. The sharp decline in the number of Russian troops has indirectly affected the perception of its military prowess, this kind of information can change the global view of Russia as a formidable military power and impact its influence and standing in international relations.

NATO member states and Western allies may reassess their strategic calculations in response to Russia’s weakening military position in Ukraine. This could lead to a re-evaluation of defense strategies, military commitments, and collaborative efforts to counter potential security threats. What countries need to pay attention to regarding these findings in assessing diplomatic opportunities is to understand how countries view security threats and whether there are opportunities to address these concerns through diplomacy is very important. When assessing diplomatic opportunities, this perception relates to how security dilemmas shape state perceptions, where states may view other states’ actions as threats, thereby leading to arms races and conflict. The security dilemma itself has been used to help explain major events, such as the First World War, the origins and end of the Cold War, and the outbreak of ethnic conflict in the countries of the former Soviet Union, former Yugoslavia, and Africa.[7]

On the other hand, revelations of large troop losses might prompt Russia to reevaluate its threat perception. The country may feel reduced military capacity and increased vulnerability, leading to a reassessment of its security interests and the need for a diplomatic solution. As Russia experiences significant setbacks in its military campaign, incentives to engage in further aggression may diminish. The Security Dilemma suggests that states may be in a cycle of competition and conflict, but a shift in the balance of power due to troop losses may lead to a reassessment of the costs and benefits of continued military engagement. The Security Dilemma Theory also implies that countries facing security challenges may seek diplomatic channels to avoid further escalation, because the security dilemma theory is a strong theory regarding war and peace through interaction.[8] Russia, facing military losses and potential isolation, may view a diplomatic solution as a way to address its security concerns without resorting to continued military confrontation.

However, Herz in explaining the security dilemma theory stated that “Whether a person is ‘naturally’ peaceful and cooperative, or aggressive and domineering, is not the question… It is his uncertainty and anxiety about the intentions of his neighbors that places man in a fundamental [security] dilemma. this, and makes ‘homo homini lupus’ a major fact in human social life.”[9] This means that a country’s actions in increasing defense or taking international relations initiatives with other actors are largely determined by “feelings of distrust” that arise naturally. For this reason, the finding that the drastic reduction in Russian troops can be expected to change how other countries act, both in interacting with Russia and Ukraine, which is supported by the West and the US.

[1] Katie Bo Lillis, “Russia has lost 87% of troops it had prior to start of Ukraine war, according to US intelligence assessment”, CNN, December 12, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/russia-troop-losses-us-intelligence-assessment/index.html

[2] Adrienne Vogt, et, al. “December 12, 2023 – Zelensky meets with Biden and lawmakers in push for more Ukraine aid,” CNN, December 12, 2023, https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/zelensky-biden-visit-12-12-23/index.html

[3] Op. Cit., Lillis

[4] Dan De Luce, “Russia has suffered dramatic casualties in Ukraine, U.S. intelligence says”, NBC News, December 13, 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-suffered-dramatic-casualties-ukraine-us-intelligence-says-rcna129354

[5] Zolan Kanno-Youngs, et al., “Biden Says Putin Is ‘Banking On’ the U.S. Failing to Deliver Aid to Ukraine,” The New York Times, December 12, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/12/12/us/zelensky-biden-visit

[6] Op. Cit., Lillis

[7] Shipping Tang, “The Security Dilemma: A Conceptual Analysis”, Security Studies, 2009, pp. 587-623, https://doi.org/10.1080/09636410903133050

[8] Ibid.

[9] John Herz (1951) in Ken Booth, “Navigating the `Absolute Novum’: John H. Herz’s Political Realism and Political Idealism”, International Relations, No. 22, Vol. 4, pp. 510-526, 2008,  https://doi.org/10.1177/004711780809731