Military attack

Through joint military action with Britain, the United States has made a strong statement to the Houthi rebels and their Iranian supporters. This action signifies a shift from a purely defensive stance to a more proactive approach in the Red Sea, with the aim of putting an end to the group’s attacks on commercial ships in the area.

It remains uncertain if the chosen approach will yield results, considering the Houthis’ stubbornness and their potential gains from engaging in conflict with the United States. This clash enhances their reputation among U.S. adversaries in the region and diverts attention from their poor governance of northwestern Yemen and the capital. However, due to the increasing danger that the group presents to the freedom of commerce and navigation in the Red Sea, which is a crucial global shipping route and a key American interest in the region, the United States had no choice but to take action.

President Biden expressed his readiness to take additional measures to safeguard our citizens and ensure the smooth operation of global trade, if needed. If he fully embraces a more proactive strategy, ensuring that American forces in the region have the necessary authority and resources, and combines any future use of force with diplomatic initiatives to resolve the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, his prospects of containing the Houthis will be enhanced.

Following Hamas’s recent attack and Israel’s subsequent declaration of war, the Houthis have made a firm commitment to carry out targeted assaults on Israeli ships and other vessels transporting goods to what they consider “occupied Palestinian ports.” Their aim is to demonstrate unwavering support for the Palestinians in Gaza. Over the past few weeks, there has been a significant increase in the number of ships being targeted or disrupted by the Houthis in international shipping lanes. On January 11th, a significant number of targets in Yemen were struck by the United States and a small coalition of allies. These targets included Houthi radar systems, air defense systems, and storage and launch sites. On Friday, the United States executed additional strikes targeting the Houthis.

The potential consequences of the attacks by the United States and Britain are evident. The State Department removed the Houthis from its list of foreign terrorist organizations in February 2021 to ease the transfer of humanitarian assistance to parts of Yemen under Houthi control. The Houthis have made it clear that they will respond in kind. That could potentially result in an increase in tensions that Washington is actively trying to prevent, as shown by Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s frequent trips to the area in recent weeks. The track record of achieving success against entrenched, capable, and resilient militias in the Middle East through the sole reliance on military force is quite dismal. Israel has long struggled to contain the threat posed by Hezbollah and Hamas, with little success. Israel’s goal of eliminating Hamas in Gaza is highly unlikely to be achieved in the ongoing conflict.

One of the key uncertainties in this new confrontation is the nature of the Houthis’ alliance with Iran. Iran’s support for the Houthis has been growing steadily since 2014. This support allows Iran to gain access to the strategically important Bab al-Mandab Strait and assert its influence in the region, particularly in Saudi Arabia’s vicinity. It is believed that Iranian resources, support, and knowledge have played a role in facilitating the group’s recent attacks on commercial targets in the Red Sea. Thanks to the academic support, the Houthis may no longer possess the capability to cause substantial damage to shipping in that area. However, the extent of Iran’s influence over the Houthi leadership is still uncertain, including their ability to command the group to cease its aggressive actions. The rebels appear to have a greater degree of independence compared to other factions within Iran’s proxy network, allowing them to employ strategic violence against their adversaries. Despite potential diplomatic pressure or the threat of force, it is uncertain whether Iran’s support to the Houthis would cease. Even if it did, the group may still utilize its existing arsenal, which should not be underestimated. The Houthis have the potential to sustain themselves financially, thanks to their control over state revenues and resources in Yemen.

Despite the potential dangers involved, the United States is compelled to address the Houthis’ aggressive actions. The Red Sea holds significant importance for both the United States and the international community due to its role as a crucial entry point for ships utilizing the Suez Canal. This canal is responsible for facilitating 12 percent of global trade, making it a vital hub for economic activities worldwide. There are reasons to be hopeful that this escalation will not escalate further. There is a valid concern regarding the potential for Iran to retaliate on behalf of the Houthis. However, it is important to note that Tehran is a cautious and can be deterred. In the late 1980s, the U.S. military took action to protect freedom of navigation in international waters. Operation Praying Mantis was launched by the U.S. Navy in April 1988 as a response to Iran’s use of a mine against an American warship. This operation played a significant role in resolving a long-standing regional conflict. In a recent statement, Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., a former head of U.S. Central Command, highlighted the effectiveness of an American drone strike in preventing Iran from further escalating its aggression against U.S. interests in the region. The strike, which resulted in the death of the top Iranian commander Qassim Suleimani in Iraq in 2020, played a crucial role in maintaining stability. However, it is important for the U.S. to consider alternative approaches beyond solely relying on military strategies. Furthermore, it is crucial to actively seek improved diplomatic strategies concerning Gaza and the surrounding area. The Houthis assert that their campaign aims to assist Hamas and halt Israel’s conflict, yet the U.S. military has stated that some of the Houthis’ recent assaults in the Red Sea did not specifically target vessels associated with or en route to or from Israel. Washington has the opportunity to demonstrate its academic prowess by achieving a diplomatic breakthrough in Gaza, or perhaps even a cease-fire, despite the fact that the U.S. has not yet made such a demand. While it may not put an end to Houthi aggression, it would strengthen Washington’s diplomatic endeavors to form a broader international coalition focused on tackling the Houthi threat. As the Houthis continue to display their stubbornness and disregard for consequences, the global community is increasingly united in their efforts to confront them. This growing consensus allows for stronger diplomatic pressure to be applied, such as imposing stringent economic sanctions and reclassifying them as a terrorist organization.

The Houthis have been a long-standing concern that the global community has unfortunately overlooked, enabling its growth and impact to intensify. However, it is certainly within reach. Addressing this complex issue necessitates a recognition of the importance of political will, international cooperation, and a humble understanding of the constraints of U.S. influence in a dynamic Middle East.